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2025/26 NFL WK12 Buffalo vs. Houston Preview:
Can the Bills outmuscle the Texans at NRG Stadium?

November 20, 2025 by Marc Jerbs

The Buffalo Bills (7-3) travel to NRG Stadium for a high-stakes Week 12 Thursday Night Football matchup against the Houston Texans (5-5) on November 20, 2025. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET, marking a prime-time contest with major implications for both teams' postseason positioning. Buffalo aims to stay within striking distance of the AFC East lead, while Houston looks to stay afloat in a tightly contested AFC South.

Team Performance

Buffalo Bills
Buffalo remains one of the league's most efficient offenses, powered by Josh Allen's dual-threat ability and a balanced run game led by James Cook. Defensively, the Bills have shown improvement over the past month, particularly in red-zone situations and third-down efficiency.

Houston Texans
Houston's identity this season has been defense-first. Their offense, while talented, has been inconsistent—especially in the red zone and early downs. With Stroud out, the Texans will likely lean heavily on running backs Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce, complemented by simplified play-action concepts to avoid turnovers.

Buffalo vs. Houston Sports Bet Odds

The Bills are the favorites to win the game. Here are our latest odds:

• The Bills are favored by 6 points, with a money line of -275.
• The Texans are the underdogs by 6 points, with a money line of +226.
• The Total is set at 43.5 points, with the over at -110 and the under at -110.

Injury Report

Buffalo Bills

Buffalo's depth will be tested, particularly on offense, as they enter the matchup without three key playmakers: Dalton Kincaid (hamstring), Curtis Samuel (elbow/neck), and Mecole Hardman Jr. (calf). With Kincaid sidelined, the Bills lose a crucial middle-of-the-field matchup piece, while the absences of Samuel and Hardman limit their ability to stretch Houston's defense both vertically and horizontally.

Several other contributors—Taron Johnson, Terrel Bernard, Christian Benford, Phidarian Mathis, Connor McGovern (rest), and Dorian Williams—were limited in practice, further emphasizing the roster strain. As a result, Buffalo will lean more heavily on rookie Keon Coleman and reliable slot option Khalil Shakir to fill the void in the passing game.

Houston Texans

Houston faces significant roster concerns, with 15 players appearing on the injury report and quarterback C.J. Stroud officially ruled out. His absence places the offense in the hands of backup Case Keenum or a potential rotational approach, putting added pressure on the ground game and short-yardage passing.

Other key defensive players—including Will Anderson Jr. (DE) and Azeez Al-Shaair (LB)—were limited participants, raising questions about Houston's pass-rush consistency and second-level coverage.

Cornerback Derek Stingley Jr., the anchor of Houston's elite secondary, is expected to play but has been managing minor soreness throughout the week.

Head-to-Head History

The Texans have won three of the last four meetings against the Bills, creating a surprising upper hand in the rivalry.

Scoring Across Last Four Matchups:

• Buffalo: 92 points
• Houston: 65 points

Despite the point differential, Houston has found ways to win close games—most notably the dramatic 22-19 overtime victory in the 2019 AFC Wild Card game.

Josh Allen's History at NRG Stadium:

• 2018: Lost 20-13; sustained elbow injury, missed four games
• 2019 Wild Card: Lost 22-19 in OT after holding a 16-0 lead
• 2024: Completed just 9 of 30 passes (career-low 30%); Bills lost 23-20

Allen enters this matchup seeking his first career win in Houston and an opportunity to shed one of the few stadium-specific struggles of his career.

Key Storylines to Watch

1. Houston's No. 1 Defense vs. Buffalo's Top-5 Offense

The Texans lead the NFL in both points allowed and yards allowed, powered by a ferocious pass rush anchored by Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, whose consistent pressure disrupts timing and forces hurried throws. Behind them, Houston's secondary thrives on tight, physical coverage, led by shutdown corner Derek Stingley Jr. and veteran safety Jimmie Ward, giving the defense the balance and discipline that have made it the league's top unit.

Their ability to limit explosive plays has been the backbone of Houston's success. Buffalo's offense will test that with high-motion looks, designed QB runs, and layered route concepts.

2. Josh Allen's Momentum

Allen is coming off a six-touchdown performance, showcasing his peak form. How he adapts to missing three key pass catchers—and how he manages Houston's pressure—will determine Buffalo's offensive ceiling.

3. Houston's Offense Without Stroud

Stroud's absence shifts the entire game script. Houston will likely adopt a ball-control approach, simplifying reads, extending drives, and relying on their defense to shorten the game. Buffalo's front seven must capitalize on this by forcing long-yardage situations.

Final Thought

With the Texans' elite defense clashing against a surging Josh Allen and a Bills team hungry for momentum, this matchup has all the makings of a high-pressure AFC chess match. For Houston, surviving without C.J. Stroud is crucial; for Buffalo, conquering past demons at NRG Stadium could mark a turning point in their postseason push.

2025-26 Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans Team Stats

BUFFALO BILLS	VS	HOUSTON TEXANS
2nd AFC East (7-3) Away (2-2) | STRK W1	Standings	3rd AFC South (5-5) Home (3-2) | STRK W2
239.8	Passing Yards Per Game	222.0
147.6	Rushing Yards Per Game	107.6
29.2	Points Per Game	22.0
169.7	Passing Yards Allowed Per Game	2171.0
153.0	Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game	87.1

2025-26 NFL Week 11 NYJ vs. NE Preview:
Can the Jets stop the Patriots' winning streak?

November 13, 2025 by Marc Jerbs

The AFC East rivalry reignites under the Thursday night lights as the surging New England Patriots (8-2) host the struggling yet resurgent New York Jets (2-7)... read more »

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