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2026 AFC Divisional Playoffs Buffalo vs. Denver Preview:
Can the Bills subdue the Broncos again?

January 15, 2026 by Marc Jerbs

The Buffalo Bills are set to visit the Denver Broncos in the AFC Divisional Round on Saturday, January 17, with kickoff scheduled for 4:30 p.m. EST at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado. The matchup serves as a postseason rematch from last year's Wild Card round, where Buffalo eliminated Denver with a convincing 31-7 win.

Game Overview

Denver enters the Divisional Round as the AFC's No. 1 seed after posting a 14–3 regular season record and earning a first-round bye. The game marks the Broncos' first home playoff appearance in a decade. Buffalo, the No. 6 seed, finished 12–5 and advanced after edging the Jacksonville Jaguars 27–24 on the road in the Wild Card round.

Key Injuries

Bills Key Injuries

Buffalo's injury situation is most noticeable among its pass catchers and defensive backs.

• Gabe Davis (WR): Out with a torn ACL
• Jordan Poyer (S): Out with a leg injury
• Dalton Kincaid (TE): Left last game in a walking boot but is expected to practice
• Ty Johnson (HB): Missed the Wild Card round with an ankle injury; improving
• Ed Oliver (DI): Returning from a leg injury
• D. Strong (CB): On injured reserve with a head injury
• M. Hairston (CB): Questionable with a leg injury
• T. Johnson (HB): Questionable with a leg injury
• Josh Allen (QB): Managing foot, knee, and finger injuries but expected to start

Broncos Key Injuries

Denver is trending healthier entering the Divisional Round.

• Dre Greenlaw (LB): Limited in practice but available
• John Franklin-Myers (DI): Full participant in practice
• Lucas Krull (TE): Activated from injured reserve
• Drew Sanders (LB): Limited in practice
• J.K. Dobbins (HB): On injured reserve (leg)
• Luke Wattenberg (C): On injured reserve (arm)
• Brandon Jones (S): On injured reserve (torso)
• P.J. Locke (S): Questionable with a leg injury

Buffalo vs. Denver Sports Bet Odds

The Broncos are the favorites to win the game. Here are our latest odds:

• The Broncos are favored by a point, with a money line of -115.
• The Bills are the underdogs by a point, with a money line of -105.
• The Total is set at 46 points, with the over at -110 and the under at -110.

Team-Level Advantages and Mismatches

Bills Advantages

• Playoff Experience: Josh Allen leads Buffalo into its seventh straight postseason and will make his 15th career playoff start. The Bills have reached two AFC Championship Games during this run.
• Passing Efficiency: Buffalo ranks well ahead of Denver in EPA per pass (0.21 vs. 0.07).
• Rushing Attack: The Bills lead the NFL in rushing yards per game (159.6) and rank second in yards per carry (5.0). James Cook III captured the 2025 rushing title with 1,621 yards.
• Against the Spread: Buffalo is 8–1 ATS in its last nine meetings with Denver, including three games played at Mile High.
• Turnover Margin: The Bills are undefeated (8–0) when committing zero turnovers and 11–1 when allowing one or fewer.

Broncos Advantages

• Home-Field Advantage: Denver hosts its first playoff game in ten years at Empower Field at Mile High. Home teams historically perform well when officiated by Carl Cheffers' crew.
• Elite Defense: The Broncos led the NFL in sacks (68), quarterback hurries (149), and pressure rate (9.8%). They also finished first in yards per play allowed and red-zone defense.
• Run Defense: Denver ranks second in rushing yards allowed per game (91) and third in yards per carry allowed (3.9).
• Pass Defense: The Broncos are seventh in passing yards allowed per game and second in yards per attempt allowed (6.1).
• Rest Advantage: Coming off a bye, Denver is 3–1–1 ATS in its last five games with a rest edge.
• Clutch Quarterback Play: Bo Nix leads the league in fourth-quarter QBR and touchdown-to-interception ratio when trailing. Denver tied an NFL record with 11 one-score wins.

Potential Mismatches

• Bills Run Defense vs. Broncos Rushing Attack: Buffalo's run defense remains a concern after allowing Jacksonville to average well over six yards per carry in the Wild Card round.
• Broncos Pass Rush vs. Josh Allen: Denver's relentless pass rush could challenge Allen, who has lost six straight games when sacked four or more times.
• Bills' Depleted Receiving Group: Buffalo enters short-handed at wide receiver, with multiple contributors unavailable, placing added pressure on Allen and the run game.

Quarterback Comparison

Josh Allen Bills	QB	Bo Nix Broncos
90.5	PFF Grade	75.2
114.2	Passer Rating (Clean)	99.2
74.0	Passer Rating (Under Pressure)	60.2
4.17%	Big-Time Throw Rate	4.06%
2.24%	Turnover-Worthy Play Rate	2.80%
Playoff Production: 259.4 passing yards per game with a 66.7% completion rate in 14 starts	Notes	2025 Stats: 3,931 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, 11 interceptions; 30 total touchdowns Development: Improved command of the offense, mobility, and decision-making throughout the season

Playoff History and Context

Denver claimed the AFC West title for the first time since 2015, ending Kansas City's nine-year hold on the division. This marks the second straight postseason meeting between the Broncos and Bills, following Buffalo's decisive Wild Card win last season. As the conference's top seed, Denver is seeking its first championship-game appearance since winning the Super Bowl ten years ago.

Final Thought

This matchup shapes up as a clash between Buffalo's postseason experience and offensive balance against Denver's dominant, well-rested defense and home-field advantage. If the Bills can establish the run and keep Josh Allen upright, they have the pedigree to repeat last year's playoff success. However, if Denver's pass rush controls the game early, the Broncos may be poised to take a major step toward their first championship-game appearance in a decade.

2025-26 Bills vs. Broncos Regular Season Team Stats

BUFFALO BILLS	VS	DENVER BRONCOS
2nd AFC East (12-5) Away (5-3) | STRK W1	Standings	1st AFC West (14-3) Home (8-1) STRK W2
216.8	Passing Yards Per Game	223.9
159.6	Rushing Yards Per Game	118.7
28.3	Points Per Game	23.6
156.9	Passing Yards Allowed Per Game	187.2
136.2	Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game	91.1

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