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2025-26 NFL Week 15 Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay Preview:
Can the Falcons pounce on the Buccaneers?

December 11, 2025 by Marc Jerbs

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are set to host the Atlanta Falcons in a Week 15 prime-time clash on Thursday, December 11, 2025, at 8:15 p.m. EST at Raymond James Stadium. This matchup carries major implications for the NFC South race, as Tampa Bay looks to secure a record fifth consecutive division title despite dropping four of its last five games.

Both the Buccaneers (7-6) and Carolina Panthers (7-6) currently share the division lead, while the Falcons (4-9) have been eliminated from playoff contention but remain eager to spoil their rival's postseason ambitions.

Season Overview and Stakes

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons, now 4-9, saw their playoff hopes end after a loss to Seattle. Despite losing seven of their last eight games, Atlanta's defense remains formidable — ranking third in the NFL in sacks-per-pass play rate. The team made a key midseason adjustment, promoting Jeff Ulbrich to defensive coordinator after parting ways with Jimmy Lake.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers enter Week 15 following a tough loss to the New Orleans Saints. Head Coach Todd Bowles emphasized moving on quickly and fixing execution errors with limited practice time before Thursday night.

Quarterback Baker Mayfield noted the need for clear communication on blitz pickups, anticipating a variety of defensive looks from Atlanta. Over their last 14 quarters, Tampa Bay has scored 59 points while allowing 98, highlighting a concerning trend they must reverse to stay in control of the division race.

Injury Report

Buccaneers

The Buccaneers continue to deal with an extensive injury list, leading to more walk-through sessions than full practices.

• OUT: LB SirVocea Dennis (hip), S Rashad Wisdom (quad)
• DOUBTFUL: TE Cade Otton (knee), S Tykee Smith (neck/shoulder)
• QUESTIONABLE: WR Mike Evans (collarbone), WR Jalen McMillan (neck), DL Brandon Dorlus (groin)
• INJURED RESERVE: G Ben Bredeson (knee)
• FULL PRACTICE: WR Chris Godwin (fibula)

Falcons

Atlanta also faces its share of key absences and uncertainties.

• OUT: WR Drake London (knee)
• QUESTIONABLE: TE Kyle Pitts (knee), DL David Onyemata (foot), OLB Jalon Walker (quad)

Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay Sports Bet Odds

The Buccaneers are the favorites to win the game. Here are our latest odds:

• The Buccaneers are favored by 4 points, with a money line of -230.
• The Falcons are the underdogs by 4 points, with a money line of +192.
• The Total is set at 44.5 points, with the over at -107 and the under at -113.

Key Matchups

Bijan Robinson vs. Buccaneers Defense
Containing Bijan Robinson, the NFL's leader with 1,683 scrimmage yards, will be crucial. In Week 1, Tampa Bay limited him to 24 rushing yards on 12 carries, but he burned them through the air with six catches for 100 yards and a touchdown. Run Game Coordinator Larry Foote stressed that it will take all 11 defenders to corral Robinson's elite lateral movement and vision.

Kirk Cousins vs. Buccaneers Defense
Veteran Kirk Cousins returns under center for Atlanta after Michael Penix Jr.'s season-ending knee injury. Cousins has historically thrived against Tampa Bay, posting 14 touchdowns, two interceptions, and a 116.1 passer rating across five career starts. Despite a modest 2025 sample (3 TDs, 3 INTs, 76.5 rating), his quick release and defensive awareness make him a dangerous test for Tampa Bay's secondary.

Falcons Pass Rush vs. Buccaneers Offensive Line
Atlanta's pass rush — led by Leonard Floyd and rookies Jalon Walker and James Pearce — ranks third in the NFL with an 11.00% sack rate. With G Ben Bredeson now on IR, the Buccaneers' protection scheme will be under heavy scrutiny. Expect Rachaad White to take on extra blocking duties in multi-receiver sets.

Player Spotlights

Buccaneers to Watch

• Rachaad White (RB): Averaging over 5 yards per carry in recent weeks, White will be vital in both pass protection and short-yardage situations.
• Antoine Winfield Jr. (S): A defensive cornerstone with 68 tackles, 4 TFLs, 2 INTs, and 7 PDs this season.
• Chris Godwin (WR): Needs 5 receptions to reach 600 career catches and 40 yards to hit 7,500 career receiving yards.
• Emeka Egbuka (WR): Only 13 yards shy of breaking into Tampa Bay's top four rookie receiving seasons.

Falcons to Watch

• Kyle Pitts (TE): With Drake London sidelined, Pitts becomes Atlanta's top target. In London's absence, he has totaled 15 receptions for 197 yards over three games.

Historical Context

The all-time series between these division rivals is tied 32-32, with the Buccaneers winning 23-20 in their Week 1 meeting. The rivalry has swung back and forth — the lead has changed hands nine times — and Tampa Bay has won six of the last ten contests.

Since becoming NFC South foes in 2002, Tampa Bay holds a slim 23-22 series edge, while leading in total points 1,459–1,354. The Buccaneers' longest win streak stands at six games (1997–2003); Atlanta's best stretches came with five straight wins in both 2008–10 and 2016–18.

Final Thought

While the Falcons look to play spoiler, the stakes could not be higher for Tampa Bay. A victory keeps their division crown hopes alive — and could spark the momentum needed for another postseason run. But with injuries mounting and pressure rising, the Buccaneers must prove that championship resilience still runs deep in the Bay.

2025-26 Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Stats

ATLANTA FALCONS	VS	TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
3rd NFC South (4-9) Away (2-5) | STRK L2	Standings	T1st NFC South (7-6) Home (3-3) | STRK L1
206.4	Passing Yards Per Game	199.8
123.6	Rushing Yards Per Game	125.5
19.4	Points Per Game	23.0
191.5	Passing Yards Allowed Per Game	237.8
131.0	Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game	100.6

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