2025-26 NFL Week 17 Sunday Night Showdown: Bears vs. 49ers Playoff Positioning & Betting Blueprint December 26, 2025 by Marc Jerbs

As the calendar flips toward the postseason, the lights don't get brighter than a Week 17 clash at Levi's Stadium. With the #1 seed in the NFC still mathematically within reach for the 49ers (11-4) and the Bears (11-4) looking to clinch their first NFC North title since 2018, this isn't just a game—it's a playoff preview.

Here is a breakdown for the smart money heading into Sunday night.

Team Overviews & Recent Form

Chicago Bears:

The "Monsters of the Midway" have found a new identity under rookie sensation Caleb Williams. Coming off a thrilling overtime victory against the Packers, the Bears have won six of their last seven. They are currently the #2 seed in the NFC, relying on a balanced attack and a defense that leads the league in takeaways.

San Francisco 49ers:

Kyle Shanahan has the Niners humming at the right time. Fresh off a dominant 48-27 dismantling of the Colts on Monday night, San Francisco is playing on a short week but stays at home. They've won four straight, averaging over 30 points per game in that span. If they win out, they could still snatch the #1 seed from Seattle.

Injury Report and Roster Notes

Bears Injury Updates:

• Rome Odunze (WR - Foot) - remains out and wasn't practicing as of the latest reports around Christmas week. He did not show up on the field during media-viewable portions of practice, and pundits report he's still sidelined.
• Luther Burden III (WR - Ankle) - progressed from DNP earlier in the week to a limited practice participant on Wednesday, which increases the likelihood he plays.
• Impact: If Odunze is still out and Burden plays limited, the Bears' WR corps may again be stressed, putting extra emphasis on DJ Moore (which could indeed make it easier for 49ers DBs to key on him)

49ers Injury Updates:

• Christian McCaffrey (RB) - was limited in earlier practices due to illness but generally trending toward availability. Recent narratives suggest he's not expected to miss the game and should be a full participant by Sunday.
• Trent Williams (LT) - after taking routine rest days early in the week, is expected to be a full participant by Sunday night.
• Additional 49ers note: TE George Kittle suffered an ankle issue in the last game and is uncertain for Sunday, though he stated it doesn't appear to be a high-ankle sprain. Depth at linebacker is thin with Yetur Gross-Matos (Hamstring) doubtful.

Matchup Breakdown

Offensive / Defensive Chess Match:
The Bears' offense (ranked 9th in scoring) thrives on Caleb Williams' ability to extend plays. However, they face a Robert Saleh-led defense that excels at disciplined "contain" rushes. The Niners' defensive line vs. the Bears' offensive line is the mismatch of the game; if San Francisco can pressure Williams without blitzing, it could be a long night for Chicago.

>Coaching Styles:

• Ben Johnson (CHI): Aggressive, creative, and willing to take shots. He's leaned into Williams' arm talent.
• Kyle Shanahan (SF): The master of the "illusion of complexity." Expect a heavy dose of McCaffrey to test the Bears' 19th-ranked scoring defense and keep Williams off the field.

Game Day Weather Forecast

Clear to mostly clear skies and crisp conditions, with temperatures likely in the upper 40s to low 50s °F around kickoff.

These conditions are ideal for passing and receiving - light wind, no rain, and dry grass. That typically favors offensive rhythm more than sloppy weather would.

Cooler night temperatures could slightly stiffen balls and affect grip, but nothing like rain/snow would. A strong passing game from both sides should be expected if the weather holds.

Betting Angles To Look At

• The Caleb vs. The Crowd: Watch how Caleb Williams handles the noise at Levi's. He's been magic in the 4th quarter all year, but the Niners' crowd on Sunday Night Football is a different beast.
• The CMC Factor: If Christian McCaffrey gets over 20 touches, the 49ers usually win. If the Bears' defense can limit him to under 100 total yards, Chicago has a massive chance to pull the upset.
• Seeding Stakes: Keep an eye on the earlier games—if the Seahawks lose to the Panthers earlier in the day, the 49ers will be playing for a chance to take over the NFC West lead.

Who Has The Edge?

The Verdict: San Francisco 49ers.

While Chicago is the "it" team of 2025, the 49ers have the experience and the home-field advantage. Chicago's defense, while opportunistic, has shown it can be moved by elite run schemes. The short week is a concern for SF, but their "Playoff Mode" version is historically difficult to beat in Santa Clara.

Top 5 Bets for Smart Money

BET TYPE	RECOMMENDATION	ANGLE
Spread	49ers -3	It's a short spread for a home team that rarely loses big games in December.
Total	UNDER 52.5	Prime-time games often start slow, and both defenses are elite at preventing "cheap" scores.
Prop	Christian McCaffrey Over 95.5 Rush / Rec Yds	Shanahan will lean on his star to neutralize the Bears' pass rush.
Prop	Caleb Williams Over 0.5 Interceptions	The Niners' secondary is baiting rookies into mistakes all season.
Moneyline	49ers (-173)	If you want to avoid the points, the ML is a safe "anchor" for a parlay.

2025-26 Chicago Bears vs. San Francisco 49ers Stats

CHICAGO BEARS	VS	SAN FRANCISCO 49ers
1st NFC North (11-4) Away (5-3) | STRK W2	Standings	2nd NFC West (11-4) Home (4-2) | STRK W5
219.4	Passing Yards Per Game	249.4
152.1	Rushing Yards Per Game	104.3
25.8	Points Per Game	26.1
217.1	Passing Yards Allowed Per Game	229.3
131.0	Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game	102.9